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Michael J. Mauboussin

4 books · 7 interviews

decision-making

What they argue

Michael J. Mauboussin is a thinker who explores the intersection of cognitive psychology, probability, and decision-making. He focuses on helping individuals and investors overcome evolutionary biases to make better decisions in complex, non-linear environments.

  1. The Expectations Gap

    The quality of a decision is determined solely by the difference between the actual outcome and the prior expectation of that outcome. This metric allows for the evaluation of a process rather than just the final result.

    From Expectations Investing (book)

    • A related idea Philip Kotler — The 'Say-Do' GapThere is a significant discrepancy between a consumer's stated preferences in a survey and their actual behavior in a retail environment. Because human behavior is…Consumer Neuroscience

  2. The Resulting Trap

    This is the cognitive bias where people judge a decision based solely on its outcome. A good decision that leads to a loss is still a good decision, while a bad decision that leads to a win is still a bad decision.

    From Expectations Investing (book)

    • A related idea Nate Silver — The Fallacy of Binary ThinkingHumans have a tendency to view the world in 'Yes/No' or 'Win/Loss' terms, which ignores the nuance of probability. This binary trap leads to overconfidence and…On the Edge
    • A related idea Clayton M. Christensen — The Success TrapSuccessful companies can become 'locked in' to their current business model, creating a cognitive filter that prevents them from seeing new opportunities. This…Seeing What's Next

  3. The Success Equation

    Success is a multiplicative relationship between skill (the quality of the decision) and luck (external variables). Treating success as purely additive fails to account for the role of luck in the final outcome.

    From The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck (book)

    • A related idea Chamath Palihapitiya — The Error Rate FormulaSuccess is defined as the difference between the mistakes made by others and the mistakes you make yourself. This shifts the focus from external winning conditions to…#338 – Chamath Palihapitiya: Money, Success, Startups, Energy, Poker & Happiness
    • A related idea Mark Manson — Systems over GoalsSuccess is not a result of ambition or sheer effort; it is the result of the environment and routines you build. You do not 'rise' to a goal; you 'fall' to the level of…33 Powerful Books That Might Change Your Life

  4. Skill-Luck Spectrum Analysis

    This framework allows for the categorization of any new project or investment to determine how much luck should be expected to play a role. It involves identifying the goal and analyzing the variables involved.

    From The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck (book)

  5. The Evolutionary Trap of Intuition

    Human intuition is a survival heuristic optimized for stable environments where rules are clear, not for accuracy in complex, modern environments. Because our brains are survival machines, they often provide shortcuts that lead to errors in complex systems.

    From Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (book)

    • Pushes the other way Malcolm Gladwell — Thin-SlicingHuman intuition is a sophisticated cognitive process that allows the brain to extract meaningful patterns from tiny slivers of experience. This "fast" thinking enables…Blink
    • Pushes the other way Gary Klein — Expert Intuition as a Cognitive SkillIntuition is not a magical gift but a cognitive skill that allows experts to recognize patterns and make rapid decisions by leveraging years of accumulated experience.…Intuition at Work

  6. The Pre-Mortem Protocol

    This is a framework used before launching a project where a team imagines a future where the project has failed. This allows for the identification of potential flaws by assuming the failure has already occurred.

    From Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (book)

    • Says much the same Gary Klein — The Premortem TechniqueThis is a tool used when starting a new project to surface hidden risks by imagining the project has already failed. It involves a 'Time Jump' to the future and…How to Succeed at Failing, Part 4: Extreme Resiliency (Update)

Every idea names the summary it came from. Written by a local model from this mind’s own work, never from memory.

Books 3

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