To overcome the pandemic and prepare for a permanent shift in global health, private investors and donors must aggressively fund the scientific R&D that the government is currently underfunding.
In one sentence
The current pandemic requires a massive, accelerated scientific response that the government is not sufficiently funding, creating a unique opportunity for private capital and philanthropy to drive the "before-and-after" moment in global health.
Why read this (and who it's for)
This is for investors, philanthropists, and high-impact leaders who want to move from passive observation to active participation in solving a global crisis. It identifies a specific gap in the current response—the funding of R&D—and provides a roadmap for how to deploy capital to find the best scientific innovations. After reading this, you will be able to identify the three paths to normalcy and understand how to leverage your network to find high-quality scientific founders.
The big idea
The author argues that our current path to normalcy depends on three specific scientific/social levers: a vaccine that lowers the R0 below 1, a treatment that removes the fear of infection, or a massive cultural shift in testing and isolation. While the government has provided stimulus, Altman argues that the actual funding of R&D is insufficient to meet the scale of the problem.
The core logic is that while the government is the traditional steward of such efforts, the private sector and philanthropic world possess the agility and "spirit of innovation" required to move at the speeds necessary for a crisis of this magnitude. We are currently in a "before-and-after" moment; the world will be fundamentally different once we can defend against new viruses, and the only way to reach that future is through a massive, focused injection of capital into the research labs and biotech companies currently operating at 10x their normal speed.
Key ideas
The Three Paths to Normalcy
- What it is — There are three distinct ways to return life, health, and the economy to normal: a vaccine that stops transmission (R0 < 1), a treatment that removes the fear of the virus, or a deep-rooted culture of testing, tracing, and isolation.
- Why it matters — Recognizing these as distinct paths allows you to see that "solving" the pandemic isn't a monolith; it requires specific scientific breakthroughs or massive behavioral shifts.
- In the book — Altman notes that experts believe these are the three ways out for life, health, and the economy to return to normal.
The Funding Gap
- What it is — While the government has issued stimulus, there is a lack of sufficient funding specifically for R&D to solve the pandemic.
- Why it matters — If the government's spending doesn't hit the R&D needle, the problem remains unsolved. This creates a vacuum that private capital can fill.
- In the book — Altman states, "they don’t seem to be funding enough science," and notes that while private sector involvement has its own concerns, there is no "great alternative" to private funding right now.
The 10x Innovation Speed
- What it is — The pandemic has forced a "spirit of innovation" where biotech companies and research labs are operating at speeds 10x faster than usual.
- Why it matters — This indicates that the infrastructure for rapid response exists; it just needs the fuel (funding) to be sustained and scaled.
- In the book — Altman observes that "the speed they are operating at seems to have increased by more than 10x," and calls this the "best of the spirit of innovation."
The "Before-and-After" Moment
- What it is — This pandemic is a historical pivot point. The world will be fundamentally different once we can defend against new viruses.
- Why it matters — It frames the investment not just as a "fix" for today, but as a permanent infrastructure for the future of human safety.
- In the book — Altman believes this will be a "before-and-after moment in the world," and emphasizes the need to defend against new viruses quickly.
The Network Signal
- What it is — The most effective way to find high-quality scientific opportunities is to signal your intent to your network.
- Why it matters — In a crisis, the best founders and researchers will be looking for capital; by broadcasting your intent, you allow the market to bring the best opportunities to you.
- In the book — Altman advises: "If you make it known to your network that you want to fund efforts working on COVID-19, you’ll get flooded with opportunities."
Frameworks & tools
The Three Paths Framework
Use this to evaluate where a scientific project sits in the "recovery" stack:
- Vaccine/Transmission: Does this lower the R0 (reproduction number) of the virus?
- Treatment/Safety: Does this remove the fear of the virus by making it non-threatening?
- Culture/Logistics: Does this build the infrastructure for testing, tracing, and isolation?
The Network Signal Method
A 3-step process to find high-quality scientific founders:
- Declare Intent: Explicitly tell your professional network (investors, scientists, peers) that you are looking to fund COVID-19/pandemic research.
- Filter for Concentration: Look for where the "best founders" are congregating.
- Leverage Experts: Use the "experts willing to help you with diligence" to navigate the complex scientific landscape.
Memorable examples & stories
The 10x Speed of Biotech
Altman highlights how research labs and biotech companies have shifted their operational tempo during the pandemic.
Lesson: Crisis creates a unique environment where the "spirit of innovation" can be harnessed at unprecedented speeds.
The Before-and-After Moment
Altman frames the current pandemic response as a historical turning point for how humanity handles viruses.
Lesson: The goal isn't just to stop this virus, but to build a permanent defense system for the future.
Key quotes
"Scientists can get us out of this. What they need are money and connections."
Why it matters: It identifies the two specific levers (capital and networking) that an investor can pull to move the needle.
"I think this will be a before-and-after moment in the world, and until we can defend against new viruses quickly, things are going to be different." (Paraphrased)
Why it matters: It underscores the urgency and the permanent nature of the problem.
"It feels good to do something that might be useful, it’s interesting to do something totally new, and it will make you more optimistic." (Paraphrased)
Why it matters: It reminds the reader that high-impact work provides a psychological reward beyond just financial return.
How to apply it
This week
- Audit your current portfolio/donations: Identify what percentage of your capital is currently going toward "defense" against future pandemics or health crises.
- Signal your intent: Send a message to 5-10 people in your network (investors, researchers, or peers) stating that you are looking to fund scientific efforts addressing the pandemic.
- Identify "Best Founders": Research which biotech labs or research groups have the highest concentration of top-tier talent.
Ongoing
- The "Before-and-After" Principle: When evaluating investments, ask: "Does this help us defend against the next virus, or is it just a temporary fix?"
- The 10x Rule: Seek out teams that are operating with a sense of urgency and innovation that exceeds standard industry speeds.
Common pitfalls
- Expecting Government Action Alone: A common mistake is assuming the federal government will provide the necessary R&D funding. Altman argues that while the government should do more, the private sector is a necessary and immediate alternative.
- Underestimating the "Before-and-After": People often view the pandemic as a temporary hurdle. Altman argues it is a fundamental shift in how we must interact with the world until we can defend against viruses.
- Ignoring the Network Effect: Trying to find "the best" science by searching alone rather than by signaling your intent to your network.
Connects to
- Effective Altruism: The idea of using capital to solve the most pressing global problems (like pandemics) with the highest possible impact.
- VC Methodology: The practice of looking for "where the best founders are congregating" to find the highest-quality opportunities.
If you remember only three things
- The government is underfunding R&D; private capital is needed to bridge the gap.
- The goal is a "before-and-after" moment where we can defend against future viruses.
- To find the best opportunities, signal your intent to your network and look for where the best founders are congregating.
Internalize it
Q: What is the "before-and-after" moment?
A: The point where we can defend against new viruses, fundamentally changing how the world operates.
Q: How can an investor find the best scientific opportunities?
A: By signaling intent to their network and looking for where the best founders are congregating.
Q: What is the "spirit of innovation" mentioned in the text?
A: The 10x increase in speed at which biotech companies and research labs are currently operating.
Q: Why is private funding necessary?
A: Because the government currently does not seem to be funding enough science to address the pandemic.
Fidelity note
Confidence is high. This summary is based strictly on the provided blog post. The text is a call to action rather than a technical manual, so the "Frameworks" are derived from the author's logic rather than explicit, named systems. The "Year" is inferred as 2020 based on the context of the pandemic response.